Not sure if that was specifically directed towards me

, but largely reflects what I've been saying except I think that the Administrator's recommendation should take a medium-ish view into account. Putting another turn on the second para, if there is a

__realistic __pathway to get, say 80c in the dollar in, say 5 years (discounted that might be 70 cents), Vs an offer that gives 40c in the dollar, now, but never any more, and other things being equal, it might get the Guernsey.

As regards calculating possible outcomes, I recommend boning up on the Monte Carlo Simulation technique.

This wikipedia article makes it seem very complex. Basically for

__each __uncertainty, you calculate a probability curve of occurrence (eg for currency, inflation, fuel price, when flights will resume 50% and 90% capacity, leasing prices, fare spreads ... probably dozens of factors in the Virgin valuation model, so dozens of curves.

Then you set the computer to randomly select a result from

__each __probability curve and plug all those results into the model and you calculate the value or outcome. Then it selects another set of variables at random & calculates the value again ... do this a few thousand times, and you get a spread of outcomes that takes ALL the variability in the inputs into account. And a value with the highest weighted probability, and standard deviations about this.

I know this isn't strictly relevant, sorry, but I have very fond memories of Monte Carlo simulation

and it once made me quite a bit of money.